In 2014, it is possible to become the turning point in the increase of cotton stocks in the world. In other words, the global cotton is converted to an inventory-to-inventory cycle. The driving factor for this shift is that China stopped transferring cash to direct subsidies. The Chinese government will Will open the State Reserve cotton to the inventory process. It is predicted that by the end of 2013/14, China's state reserve cotton will reach 11 million tons. It may take a few years for the stock to be reduced to a reasonable level, and the huge stockpile will give a huge supply pressure to world cotton prices whenever it is sold out. After this major keynote is seized, the price of cotton in the whole of 2014 will fall mainly. The drop in domestic cotton prices in China will be significantly higher than the drop in world cotton prices. The difference between domestic and import cotton slip allowances to port costs Spread will be reduced to the normal level of 1000-2000 yuan / ton.
For the US cotton index, the range of volatility is expected to remain at 65-85 cents, while the 2013 range is 70-93 cents. Among them, the 81-93 cents consolidate to a more pronounced head shape, The lower edge of this section will suppress the price of the US cotton. In the judgment of the overall US cotton trend is weak, the high price area of the US cotton in 2014 is likely to form in the vicinity of 80-85 cents, while the low range may be in the vicinity of 70 cents, the United States for our cotton The forecast is a year-round turmoil fell, fluctuating range of 70-85 cents.
Zheng cotton trend is expected to be weaker than the United States and cotton, from a technical point of view, the 2012/13 formation of the large fluctuations in the interval 18800-20500 breakdown at the end of 2013, the price volatility from the price breakthrough point of view, the decline will be Will reach at least 1700 points, so the projection of the fall of the goal of the qingmei index in 2014 will reach at least 17000 or so, if the drop of 1.6 times the measure of decline, the goal of the drop will reach 16000 or so. Therefore, it is speculated that the full-year -2020 Zheng cotton index to shock the main downward trend, the high point may be around 18800-19000, while the lows may reach 16000-17000 level.