In January 2014, CIMC and the National Cotton Industry Technology System investigated 16 provinces and autonomous regions including Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Tianjin, 110 designated counties in urban areas, 3447 designated farmers, released in 2014 cotton intention report.
First, the intention of cotton area was reduced to
1, intention cotton minus one into more. In 2014, the intention of cotton planting in China showed a decreasing trend, an increase of 6.3 percentage points from the 2013 level. According to the monitoring results of 110 high-quality cotton sample counties (counties), 215 townships (towns) and 337 villages and 3447 cotton-paddy households in January, 61.8% of them were flat-panel households, down 3.2 percentage points from the same period of last year, and 7.0% %, A decrease of 0.3 percentage point year-on-year; a decrease of 27.6% and a year-on-year increase of 4.4 percentage points.
Intentions to reduce the cotton planting area of 10.7%, according to the 2013 planting area of 73.46 million mu (CIMC data) to reduce 7838000 acres to 6562.2 acres, and another 3.6% of farmers is still looking forward to wait and wait.
2, the intention of cotton change characteristics. First, the intention of cotton planting in the three major cotton areas showed a decrease. The Yangtze River reduced 12.1%, the Yellow River reduced 17.4% and the Northwest reduced 4.9%, of which the southern border reduced 4.8% and the northern border reduced 5.8%. Second, all over the world to reduce their living, increased by 1.5%, Tianjin unchanged. According to the reduction rate, the reduction rate will decrease by 23.2%, decrease by 18.9%, decrease by 18.2%, decrease by 16.3%, decrease by 15.4%, decrease by 14.5%, decrease by 13.3%, reduce by 13.2% A decrease of 5.1%, a decrease of 3.9% and a decrease of 2.1%.
Second, cotton reduction reason analysis
1, temporary storage to play an active role. In 2013, the temporary storage and purchase price will continue to be 20,400 yuan / ton. As of January 23, 2014, it received 5,616,000 tons of lint, accounting for about 80% of the total output. The transaction price of peasants' seed cotton rose slightly. Under the background of weak consumption and massive imports, the Provisional Storage and Storage Policy confirmed that the market stability was effectively maintained , Successfully curbed the substantial decline in cotton prices, to avoid the "hard sell cotton", in protecting the interests of farmers has played its due role.
However, due to the temporary storage and raising of raw cotton prices too much, resulting in excessive spreads at home and abroad, this policy is about to be canceled, the target price pilot work in Xinjiang, which has a greater negative impact on the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. According to the survey, many species of cotton in the Yangtze River are far from being difficult for farmers.
2, reduced revenue. According to the monitoring, the net income of main cotton products in 2013 was 482.0 yuan / mu (Table 3), down by 19.4% from the same period of last year to 115.9 yuan / mu. The main reasons are: first, the decrease of seed cotton by 7.2% and the decrease of 158.2 yuan / mu; A slight increase of 2.5%, an increase of 50.7 yuan / mu. Third, the total cost rose 0.43%, revenue decreased 7.0 yuan / mu. Abnormal climate in 2013 led to a decline in yields. Among them, the heat wave and drought in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River hit North China in succession for two years, but the extent of floods in 2013 was earlier than that in August-September 2012, and the extent was also alleviated. In northern Xinjiang, Seriously harmful.
Third, the policy of stabilizing the area of cotton remains in need of policy support, we must closely rely on scientific cotton and cotton science and technology, to increase efforts to build a new service system
1, one file is good. For example, it started the pilot project of subsidizing target price of cotton in Xinjiang, continued the establishment of high-yield subsidies and high-yielding crops, attacked the weak links in the production of cotton and other machinery, and strengthened the key technical subsidies for steadily increasing output of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation. The Ministry of Agriculture proposed the key points of "three stability" and "three advances" in crop cultivation. "Three stability" means the stable increase of grain output, the stable development of cottonseed oil and the steady development of vegetable production. "Three advances" have made new progresses in the pattern of high-yielding and stimulation of production, new progress has been made in product quality and safety, and new progress has been made in resource conservation and utilization.
2, Increase scientific cotton planting and cotton science and technology, and actively build a social service system of cotton production. The current reduction in cotton-planting intentions is closely linked to the "four charges" of cotton management (labor-intensive, time-consuming, laborious and costly) and the old problem has become more and more severe. Peasants believe that cotton plantation workers, management tethered people, but the "four charges" need to be cracked one by one, in 2014 to start cotton seedling transplanting techniques of financial subsidies pilot, should pay close attention to implementation, the key is to support "generational generation Planting "mode; new progress should be made in cotton high yield creation and stimulation mode popularization; support for cotton specialized cooperatives, large cotton transplant households, family farms and specialized cotton service agencies should be strengthened to form a batch of new experiences. Drought and drainage cotton disaster prevention and other key technology insurance should be increased.